Increased likelihood of an eruption is ongoing on the Sundhnúkur Crater Row. The magma accumulation process under Svartsengi is still ongoing, and the rate of magma inflow has remained steady over the past two weeks. As long as magma continues to accumulate, a new eruption must be expected. The uncertainty regarding the timing of the next eruption is greater when magma accumulation is slow, and based on the current accumulation rate, the timing uncertainty spans months. The amount of magma that has accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption is the fifth largest to date, and measurements indicate that since March 2024, the volume of magma required to trigger a new diking event or eruption appears to have increased compared to earlier events. The Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until 6th of January unless activity changes. The weather conditions in the coming days may affect instrument sensitivity, and the public is encouraged to stay informed about weather warnings. However, the rate of magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi has remained fairly stable over the past two weeks, and the likelihood of a magma intrusion and an eruption remains elevated in the coming weeks. It is not possible to estimate the timing of the next eruption with greater accuracy than within a few months. The hazard assessment remains unchanged until 9 December. The seismic activity in the area remains low, with twelve small earthquakes measured in the last two weeks, located between Stóra-Skógfell and Grindavík. Deformation measurements indicate ongoing uplift and magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi, although the rate of magma inflow is gradually decreasing. Based on previous events, the likelihood of a new magma intrusion and eruption increases when a comparable amount of magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi as before the last eruption. The amount of magma that has drained from Svartsengi during eruptive episodes since March 2024 has varied, ranging from 12–31 million cubic meters. Therefore, there is still considerable uncertainty about when the next event will occur. Seismic activity near Grindavík and the Sundhnúkur crater row remains rather low, with only occasional small earthquakes of around or just above magnitude 1.0 being recorded. Most of these are located between Hagafell and Grindavík. Deformation measurements show that the subsidence that began in Krýsuvík this summer has slowed significantly, and deformation is now minimal in the area. Earthquakes in Krýsuvík still occur a few times per day, but activity has decreased substantially. The total number of earthquakes has dropped from 250 down to 100–150 per week. This is the first time since summer that the earthquake pattern shows a continuous decline. The hazard map has been updated and remains unchanged until November 25. The Icelandic Meteorological Office continues to monitor developments closely and will update information if changes occur. Around 14 million cubic meters of magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the last eruption, and the likelihood of a new magma intrusion and eruption increases once a similar volume of magma has recharged beneath Svartsengi as was released during the last event. Looking at eruptions in the Sundhnúkur crater row since March 2024, the amount of magma that was released from Svartsengi each time has varied considerably — from 12 million to 31 million cubic meters. Therefore, there is still considerable uncertainty about the exact timing of the next event. A brief micro-earthquake swarm occurred east of Sýlingarfell on Saturday evening, and deformation measurements over recent weeks indicate that uplift and magma accumulation continue beneath Svartsengi. There remains considerable uncertainty about the timing of the next event. The current hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid for two weeks, unless activity increases. The rate of magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi has remained fairly stable over the past two weeks, and the likelihood of a magma intrusion and an eruption remains elevated in the coming weeks. It is not possible to estimate the timing of the next eruption with greater accuracy than within a few months. The hazard assessment remains unchanged until 9 December. The Icelandic Meteorological Office maintains 24-hour monitoring of all natural hazards in Iceland, including real-time surveillance of seismic, deformation, and gas data, and warnings are issued when necessary. Information on activity is published in news updates on vedur.is, and situation reports are shared daily with key stakeholders and response agencies. Weekly summaries on the status of volcanic systems are distributed to relevant partners. More detailed information on Iceland's volcanic systems can be found on the Icelandic Volcano Web Portal: islenskeldfjoll.is.
