The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations: A Supercomputer's Prediction for the Champion
The Africa Cup of Nations, a tournament brimming with drama and excitement, is set to captivate fans once again in 2025. This edition, the 35th since its inception in 1957, promises to be a spectacle as 24 nations from across the continent vie for glory in Morocco. But who will emerge as the champion? A supercomputer, powered by Opta, has analyzed the data and made its prediction, revealing some intriguing insights.
Morocco: The Clear Favorites
Morocco, the host nation, is the clear favorite, according to the supercomputer. With a 19.1% chance of winning, they benefit from the home advantage and are currently ranked as FIFA's highest-ranked African nation at 11th place. Their recent fourth-place finish at the 2022 World Cup further cements their status as a top contender. Led by talisman Achraf Hakimi and supported by key players like Brahim Díaz, Noussair Mazraoui, and Yassine Bounou, Morocco has the talent and momentum to go all the way.
North African Dominance
Three of the supercomputer's top four favorites are from North Africa, with Egypt, the record seven-time champions, also in the running. Egypt, with a 12.4% chance of victory, features stars like Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush. However, they haven't claimed the title since 2010, and their recent runners-up status in 2021 adds to the intrigue. Algeria, Morocco's fierce rivals, are given a 12.0% chance of a third title, with a squad that includes the likes of Rayan Aït-Nouri, Mohamed Amoura, and the legendary Riyad Mahrez.
Senegal: The Third Favorites
Senegal, the 2021 champions, sits in the third spot with a 12.3% chance of success. Ranked as the second-highest African nation by FIFA at 19th, they boast a star-studded squad. Twenty of their players compete in Europe's top five leagues, while three of the remaining seven are former Premier League stars, including Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Sadio Mané.
Nigeria: A Strong Contender
Nigeria, the fifth favorite, has a 7.3% chance of glory. Despite having Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman in their ranks, they fall short of the top four. Their defense, lacking elite options, might be a concern. However, with a talented squad, they remain a force to be reckoned with.
Tunisia and Ivory Coast: Close Contenders
Tunisia and Ivory Coast, the reigning champions, are almost indistinguishable in their odds, with 6.8% and 6.7% chances, respectively. Tunisia has consistently reached the quarterfinals in recent tournaments, while Ivory Coast, without the iconic stars of the past like Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, still possesses a talented squad.
Long Shots and Underdogs
Mali and Cameroon, with 6.4% and 4.1% chances, respectively, have outside shots at glory. However, Cameroon is in turmoil, with a conflict between its president and manager. South Africa and DR Congo, with 2.2% and 2.0% chances, have a glimmer of hope but are unlikely to progress far. Zimbabwe and Botswana, with the lowest chances at 0.2%, are considered the tournament's biggest underdogs.
The Full List of Favorites
Here's the complete list of nations and their chances of winning the 2025 AFCON title:
- Morocco: 19.1%
- Egypt: 12.4%
- Senegal: 12.3%
- Algeria: 12.0%
- Nigeria: 7.3%
- Tunisia: 6.8%
- Ivory Coast: 6.7%
- Mali: 6.4%
- Cameroon: 4.1%
- South Africa: 2.2%
- DR Congo: 2.0%
- Angola: 1.3%
- Burkina Faso: 1.2%
- Gabon: 1.0%
- Zambia: 1.0%
- Mozambique: 0.8%
- Sudan: 0.6%
- Equatorial Guinea: 0.6%
- Tanzania: 0.5%
- Benin: 0.5%
- Comoros: 0.4%
- Uganda: 0.4%
- Zimbabwe: 0.2%
- Botswana: 0.2%
