The 2026 US midterm elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment, with Democrats aiming to capitalize on their post-2024 losses and flip key seats in the House and Senate. The primary elections across the country have set the stage for high-stakes general election contests, reflecting the nation's desire for change and the enduring influence of Donald Trump on the Republican Party.
One of the most closely watched races is in New Jersey, where the Democratic nomination of Rebecca Bennett, a former healthcare executive and US Navy veteran, to challenge Republican congressman Tom Kean Jr. in a suburban swing district carries renewed importance due to Kean's mysterious three-month absence from Congress. In Iowa, Democrats are spending big on rematches in districts that produced some of the closest House races in 2022, with a moderate challenger running on a 'prairie populism' message offering hope for flipping the US Senate seat.
California's redrawn maps have given Democrats an advantage in the heavily blue state, with early results showing a tight race for governor. The state's nonpartisan primary system means the top two vote-getters advance, regardless of party, with Democratic mayor Karen Bass and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt locked in a tight battle for one of the spots.
The internal fights within the Democratic Party, on ideology, economic populism, and the Israel-Hamas conflict, have also played out in several races. Scott Wiener, a Democratic state senator known for championing housing and LGBTQ+ legislation, won a coveted seat to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while the race for Montana's open Senate seat is expected to be a strong challenge from independent Seth Bodnar.
Despite Trump's low approval rating, some Republican contests could have Democrats on the back foot. In New Mexico, Republican Greg Cunningham, endorsed by Trump, faces no formal opposition in the primary race to take on Congressman Gabe Vasquez, a Democrat. In Montana, Republicans have rallied around Aaron Flint, Trump's choice to succeed Representative Ryan Zinke, despite the race being rated as 'likely Republican'.
The midterms are a test of new maps in California, with a highly political redistricting war upending the already polarized political environment. Trump has pushed for redrawn congressional maps in several Republican-led states to protect the party's razor-thin House majority, while a Supreme Court ruling has weakened the Voting Rights Act, allowing several southern states to reconfigure their maps.
The outcomes of these primary elections will have significant implications for the direction of both parties and the issues voters are grappling with since 2024. As Democrats look to capitalize on Trump's low approval rating, the midterms will be a crucial test of their ability to flip key seats and shape the nation's political landscape.
