The gaming industry is a competitive arena, and the journey from Early Access to full release can be a make-or-break moment for developers. But here's a surprising revelation: most games on Steam might not see the success they hope for after leaving Early Access.
Game analyst Simon Carless, the founder of GameDiscoverCo, delved into the performance of Steam games after their Early Access phase in 2025. He found that the majority struggled to match their initial success. Carless' study excluded games with extremely low or high sales metrics and those selling fewer than 5,000 copies in Early Access, ensuring a focused analysis.
Here's the twist: only 20% of the games examined generated more revenue in the first 30 days after their 2025 release compared to their Early Access debut. A mere 45 titles achieved this feat. The rest? They saw their release revenue pale in comparison to their Early Access days.
Take Supermarket Simulator, for instance. Its version 1.0 launch revenue was a staggering 95% lower than its Early Access start. Backpack Battles and Slime Rancher 2 also suffered significant revenue drops of -87% and -85%, respectively. But it's not all doom and gloom; News Tower, Mars First Logistics, and Escape The Backrooms defied the odds, more than doubling their revenue.
GameDiscoverCo's statistics paint a thought-provoking picture: in 2025, the median revenue for games on Steam during their release month was just 40% of their median revenue in the first month of Early Access. This begs the question: is the belief that a slow launch can be saved by a 1.0 release becoming outdated?
Carless suggests that a 1.0 release is more like a reminder to wishlisters and a marketing opportunity. He implies that developers might overestimate the impact of a full release, especially if it's not a significant upgrade or if discounts are infrequent.
And this is the part most people miss: the success of a game's launch might not solely depend on leaving Early Access. It's a complex interplay of marketing, timing, and the nature of the update itself. So, is Early Access a guaranteed path to success, or is it a double-edged sword? Share your thoughts in the comments!
